![]() The author of this article (published during the January 2016 stock market dip) goes on to allege that “if history is any indication, it’s not going to get any better. Upon referencing the following chart published in the CNBC article Why Markets Tend to Fall During a Presidential Election Year (listed in my references), it is easy to see how one might speculate that the final year of a presidential cycle, where a change in leadership is all but guaranteed as per the 22 nd amendment, has been an historically poor year for investors in the US market.Īccording to this article, since 1900 the S&P 500 has, on average, fallen by 1.2% in year 8, with the market rising only 44% of the time. But could the findings of such articles, and the statistics which they are based upon, be misleading? The theory combines some quantitative numbers and qualitative likely explanations, and upon a cursory read of some of the available articles and data they reference it may prompt one to be concerned as we approach the election. There is an abundance of publications available on what is referred to as “Presidential Election Cycle Theory”, and one can easily find online articles published by such reputable sources as CNBC, The Stock Trader’s Almanac, and Forbes on this very topic. In the midst of this fanfare, I am often asked by clients what the final outcome of such bare-knuckled exchanges might mean for the stock market. ![]() Though this debate eventually ended in a handshake, the spectacle included finger-pointing accusations of sexual misconduct of Donald Trump and Bill Clinton, talk of rape, racial and gender-specific pandering, an expansion of the name-calling which escalated to Donald Trump calling Hillary Clinton “the Devil”, and would have been more appropriately moderated by a child daycare worker. In this contest Trump elected to grab the campaign by the… moment, and firmly secure an opportunity to bring three women, who in the past have accused former president Bill Clinton of inappropriate sexual behavior, in for a live streaming event less than two hours before the start of the debate. Perhaps the Commission on Presidential Debates found it prudent to deter viewership of such a violent and exploitative contest, which this time included a glimpse into the locker room as Trump attempted to explain what he referred to as “locker room talk.” ![]() For those who missed this high-scoring battle of stamina, the debate brought viewers such fanfare as name-calling, talking over each other and the moderator, accusations of sexism, racism, tax dodging, email dodging, all with a liberal amount of sniffing.Īfter the candidates had a chance to lick their wounds, they faced off on the presidential pitch again during another gladiatorial bout- 30 minutes after the start of the Sunday night game between the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers. Our first presidential debate kicked off on Monday, September 26 th just 30 minutes after kickoff of the Monday Night Football game between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. This election season has been a particularly vitriolic one between two candidates whom an ABC News/Washington Post poll have found to be the least popular in the history of their polling of more than 30 years.
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